On
June 7, the MAEF-2023 plenary meeting was held in the RAS Great Hall. It was attended by Russian experts, scientists, representatives of the academic community, the real sector of the economy, committees of the Federation Council of the Russian Federal Assembly and the Russian State Duma, relevant departments, heads of the country's leading economic universities, foreign embassies, young researchers, and foreign experts. The event was
live-streamed on several online platforms from the RAS Great Hall.
The MAEF-2023 plenary meeting was moderated by
Sergey Bodrunov, Doctor of Economics, Professor, President of the Free Economic Society of Russia, President of the International Union of Economists, RAS Corresponding Member, and
Boris Porfiriev, Co-Chair of the MAEF Program Committee, Vice President of the VEO of Russia, Presidium Member of the International Union of Economists, Head of the Economics Section of the RAS Department of Social Sciences, Scientific Director of the RAS Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS Academician.
The event was hosted by
Andrey Zhurankov, Head of the analytical group of the TASS press center.
Anticipating the Forum's plenary meeting, Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician-Secretary of the RAS Department of Historical and Philological Sciences, RAS Academician
Nikolai Makarov read out a greeting message from
Gennady Krasnikov, MAEF Co-Chair, President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, RAS Academician.
"The world economy is experiencing not the best times nowadays. It is entering a new phase of uncertainty, a restructuring of its institutions is taking place, and their role and purpose is changing. Russia is at the very center of these global processes. The domestic economy is set to develop in a challenging geopolitical environment, therefore, we should strengthen the technological, economic and financial sovereignty of our state as soon as possible. I am confident that the knowledge and experience of the Forum participants will help develop new tools to strengthen Russia's economic potential, contribute to its scientific and technological breakthrough and promote cooperation with friendly countries," said
Gennady Krasnikov.
The plenary report was made by
Sergey Bodrunov, MAEF Co-Chair, President of the Free Economic Society of Russia, President of the International Union of Economists, RAS Corresponding Member.
"The domestic economy has managed to overcome current challenges relatively well, showing its high adaptive capacity to changes in the external environment and the general situation in the world. Despite tough sanctions pressure, last year's GDP dropped by just 2.1%, according to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). Nowadays, the country's economic dynamics relies mainly on fiscal stimulus and domestic demand. And for how long will they prop it up? It is important to look to the future and solve not only pressing problems, but also analyze the trends of civilizational development and rely on them, ask global questions and look for fundamental answers at the scientific level," said the President of the VEO of Russia.
We Need a Technological Breakthrough: New Technologies for Nuclear and Atomic Energy, Oil Refining, Petrochemistry and Gas Chemistry Sergey Bodrunov, MAEF Co-Chair, is convinced that the new geopolitical and economic situation requires a new model of the country's economic development, the core of which should be science and technology policy.
"If we want to enter the core of a new world economic order, the transition to which has rapidly accelerated due to the aggravation of the geopolitical situation, we need unique competitive technologies in medicine, ecology, energy, agriculture, industry, security and other areas. We already have such experience because in Soviet times a technological breakthrough was made in space, aviation, nuclear energy, and chemistry. There are considerable groundwork, including in academic institutions, it must be preserved and developed at ever-increasing tempos," said the President of the VEO of Russia.
According to the scientist, we should build up our industrial potential within the framework of the economic reindustrialization on a qualitatively new basis.
"The mechanisms for the development of such technologies are based on achieving a new quality of material production, which consists in the transition to its knowledge-intensive type, that is, production in which the main resource is neither raw materials, nor machines, but knowledge embodied in all its components: materials, organization and the structure of the production process, labor and, of course, new technologies that allow the most rational and environmentally friendly creation and implementation of advanced forms and methods of production in the economy," Sergey Bodrunov explained.
"We must clearly understand that countries with technological sovereignty, that is, capable of independently producing high-tech products necessary for solving strategic development problems, will lead in the new world economic model. Namely, technological sovereignty is the foundation of innovative development," agreed
Vladimir Ivanov, Co-Chair of the MAEF Organizing Committee, Presidium Member of the VEO of Russia, Deputy President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, RAS Corresponding Member.
According to the scientist, our first goal is to adopt a strategy for the transition to a circular innovation economy, identify critical technologies and ensure a constructive dialogue between government, science, society and business, as well as the interaction of scientific, technological and industrial sectors, including through public-private partnership.
Anton Maksimov, Director, Topchiev Institute of Petrochemical Synthesis (RAS), RAS Corresponding Member, spoke about the technologies that will determine the future of domestic oil refining, petrochemistry and gas chemistry. These are, in particular, hydrogen technologies and technologies for capturing carbon dioxide.
Among the actual challenges for oil refining and petrochemistry, the scientist named decarbonization, and as a result, a gradual transition from the disposal of chemical and organic wastes to their reuse, a change in the energy structure, that is, the thermal energy used in chemistry, oil refining and power engineering will be replaced by electrical energy. These challenges will require the development of appropriate technologies.
"Each petrochemical product will be created in such a way that it can be disposed of or reused, for example, in chemical cycles. Thus, the logic of technologies that will be created in the next two decades is being built," the scientist explained.
Since hydrogen is becoming one of the means of decarbonization of industry and a number of modes of transport, Russia thus faces the issue of obtaining hydrogen from methane using technologies for capturing, storing and utilizing carbon dioxide.
"These technologies are very important for Russia. It is possible to obtain hydrogen with a low carbon footprint not only through simple electrolysis, but also through electropyrolysis, the use of nuclear energy and waste thermal energy. Such technologies are currently being created in Russia," Anton Maksimov explained.
Stepan Kalmykov, Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Scientific Director of the Faculty of Chemistry, Lomonosov Moscow State University, RAS Academician, noted that the solution of the tasks that the country faced today were directly related to the competitiveness of domestic nuclear energy and the development of technologies in this area.
"The development of nuclear energy is based on closing the nuclear fuel cycle, which determines the minimization of the disposal of long-lived radioactive waste and the full use of fissile isotopes," said the scientist.
Igor Ermakov, Director of the Strategic Management Department, Rosatom State Corporation, believes that in order to ensure the country's energy security, we need to develop nuclear technologies, both on thermal neutrons and on fast neutrons.
"Nuclear power plants based on thermal neutrons are the basis for the development of nuclear energy. If initially we are moving towards the unification and optimization of design solutions, then at the second stage we are moving on to the development of two-component nuclear energy: this is a mix of NPPs based on thermal neutrons and NPPs based on fast neutrons, both with sodium and lead coolants," the expert explained.
The creation of new reactors and technologies requires investments in research, experimental base and design developments,
Igor Ermakov said.
MAEF experts agreed that R&D funding should be increased in Russia.
According to
Aleksandr Shirov, Presidium Member of the VEO of Russia, Presidium Member of the International Union of Economists, Director of the RAS Institute for Economic Forecasting, RAS Corresponding Member, R&D costs are directly related to the efficiency of the economy. According to the calculations made by the RAS Institute for Economic Forecasting, each ruble spent on R&D is 1 ruble and 43 kopecks of additional GDP growth.
Sergey Mitin, Vice-President of the VEO of Russia, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee of the Russian Federal Assembly on Agrarian Food Policy and Environmental Management drew attention to the underfunding of agricultural science.
"The ratio of domestic spending on research and development in agriculture to the gross value added created in the industry is almost one and a half times lower than in science as a whole. These are 0.64% and 0.99%, respectively. We need to ensure the priority development of agricultural science, education, create a modern system for implementing the results of advanced research and development in agricultural production," said the senator.
New Macroeconomic Policy Priorities and New Drivers of Economic Growth Aleksandr Shirov, Director of the RAS Institute for Economic Forecasting, believes that an effective macroeconomic policy in the new conditions should be based on the gradual complication of the economy through the expansion of cooperation and the development of intersectoral interactions at the first stage, and at the second stage it should be based on the transition to an increase in production efficiency .
Valery Kryukov, Presidium Member of the VEO of Russia, Presidium Member of the International Union of Economists, Director, Institute of Economics and Organization of Industrial Production, Siberian division of the Russian Academy of Science, RAS Academician, agreed that focusing on increasing the complexity of the Russian economy should be the goal of state policy.
"This requires building up programs to support a complex industrial economy and the formation of new approaches to the indicative planning system," said the scientist.
"When talking about the near term (until 2035), we should first of all adapt to the new conditions. Then we should move on to restructuring the economy, and only then realize the potential for economic growth, which by 2030 should be at least 4–5%," believes Aleksandr Shirov.
Structural adjustment will require the introduction of new technologies in various types of economic activity, which will lead to structural shifts in the Russian economy, namely, a smaller impact on the economic dynamics of low-level medium-tech industries and agriculture, trade and transport margins, the share of mining, and increased energy efficiency, said the director of the RAS Institute for Economic Forecasting.
Structural and technological modernization of the economy will not only realize its growth potential, which by 2030, according to the RAS Institute for Economic Forecasting, may reach 4-5%, but will also make a significant contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Russia.
"The strategy for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation with a low level of greenhouse gas emissions until 2050 in the new conditions should undoubtedly be updated, and, above all, be based on the structural and technological transformation of the economy. Precisely this lever should lead to the main reduction in greenhouse gas emissions," said
Boris Porfiriev, Vice President of the VEO of Russia, Head of the Economics Section of the RAS Department of Social Sciences, RAS Academician.
According to Aleksandr Shirov,
the main drivers of Russian economic growth in the near future will be construction; the development of high-level medium-tech industries, namely, the production of vehicles and equipment, aircraft manufacturing; IT technologies.
As for spatial development, Valery Kryukov believes that we should reduce the imbalance in the Asian part of Russia.
"The scientific-industrial and production-technical potential of the Central and South Asian part of Russia is weakly involved in the implementation of major geopolitical projects, which are implemented mainly in the Arctic. This applies to LNG projects, as well as projects related to the development of many types of minerals," said the scientist.
Valery Kryukov believes that in order to solve this problem, a new spatial policy is needed, which is based on synergistically connected and complementary spatially distributed chains, and these multipliers must be designed to connect the space in eastern Russia and serve as a framework for the implementation of further technological structures.
Social Sphere: New Approaches In his report,
Andrey Klepach, Board Member of the VEO of Russia, Presidium Member of the International Union of Economists, Chief Economist, VEB.RF (State Development Corporation), highlighted the demographic situation and the preservation of the country's population.
According to VEB.RF, even if the birth rate rises from 1.4 to 1.5 and the death rate falls, Russia's population will shrink to 130-138 million by 2035.
The economist believes that in order to stop the population decline, it is necessary to pursue a systemic family policy, encourage a higher birth rate and develop the healthcare system.
Modern methods of treating and diagnosing cancer can make a great contribution to the development of human capital and the "knowledge economy" in the country, said
Andrey Kaprin, Director of the P. A. Herzen Moscow Research Oncological Institute of the Russian Ministry of Health, RAS Academician.
The scientist spoke about the prospects for the development of nuclear and personalized medicine in the country and telemedicine technologies.
"As for telemedicine technologies, we started with 400 consultations per year with regional dispensaries before the pandemic, now it is 16,000 consultations. It is necessary to create a telemedicine consultation service with separate funding because the load on doctors is now, of course, enormous," said the scientist.
According to Andrey Kaprin, a personalized medicine service should also be created.
"Clinical guidelines are good, but there is a group of patients with rare tumors that require an individual approach. In the last two years, we were allowed to prescribe many drugs off-label, if we saw that the body went through all the cycles of complex treatment and the tumor did not respond," explained Andrey Kaprin.
Another important topic raised by the scientist is the development of a relatively young industry, namely nuclear medicine and the production of radiopharmaceuticals.
"Nuclear medicine in Russia was abandoned until recent times. We sold raw materials abroad, which were returned to us in the form of medicines 4-5 times more expensive than our raw materials cost importers. We have begun to deal with this issue, but we do not have production facilities yet, and investors still do not want to invest in this process, believing that it will require a lot of money," said the scientist.
According to
Andrey Klepach, in order to develop the social sphere, the wage gap in the regions should be reduced. Speaking about the average salary of doctors and teachers, its level can vary by 2.6 - 2.7 times (by 3.6 times for medical workers) depending on the region.
In addition, according to the economist, the task is to increase the share of wages in Russia's GDP. If in 2015 wages accounted for 48% of GDP, today it is 30%, which is significantly lower than in developed countries such as the USA, Germany and the UK.
Oleg Smolin, Presidium Member of the VEO of Russia, Presidium Member of the International Union of Economists, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee of the Russian Federal Assembly on Science and Higher Education, devoted his speech to the problem of the staffing crisis in science and the social sphere.
"According to a study by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, 70-75% of the interviewed entrepreneurs noted that the staffing problem was urgent for them. Russia is experiencing a shortage amounting to 3 million workers. There is a shortage of skilled workers in construction and industry, as well as engineers and specialists in the field of IT technologies," said the deputy.
According to Oleg Smolin, in order to solve this staffing problem, it is necessary to increase funding for areas that create human potential.
"We have repeatedly introduced bills aimed at supporting areas that create human potential, in particular, at raising the status of pedagogical, medical and scientific workers. Investing in people is not the state's burden, but an investment in the future," the deputy summed up.
Enhanced International Cooperation According to
Elena Panina, Director of the Institute for International Political and Economic Strategies (Russtrat), Presidium Member of the VEO of Russia, Chairman of the VEO of Russia's Committee on Strategic Planning, Vice President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, a new strategic vector in the development of international cooperation for Russia is the strengthening of partnership within the CIS, the EAEU, as well as the SCO, ASEAN, BRICS, expanding cooperation with the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean.
"In order to reorient trade, economic and investment cooperation and implement joint projects, it is necessary to build and reconstruct transport corridors: North-South, Transib, Primorye, sections of Western Europe — Western China roads, highways, railway lines, pipeline transport," said Elena Panina.
Mr.
Wang Wen, Co-Chairman of the Expert and Business Council of the VEO of Russia and the IUE on the Development of Russian-Chinese Cooperation, Valdai Club expert, Director of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, also pointed to the great potential for cooperation between China and Russia in the new geopolitical and economic environment.
The expert named five areas for deepening, expanding and optimizing interaction between countries. First of all, it is trade. According to the professor, China and Russia should increase the volume of bilateral trade and change its structure. So far, the bulk of Russian exports to China are energy carriers (75%). Second, China and Russia should seek to achieve a breakthrough in energy cooperation. Thanks to the modernization of existing pipelines and the construction of new ones, the export of natural gas from Russia to China in the next few years may increase from 15 billion cubic meters to 25 billion cubic meters per year. The third direction is agriculture. Every year, China imports about 110 million tons of grain, and only about 1 million tons are imported from our country. Russia also accounts for only 1% of China's total soybean imports. It is also necessary to develop investment and financial cooperation between Russia and China, noted Professor Wang Wen: to stimulate settlements in national currencies, increase mutual direct investment, and create a Chinese-Russian financial ecosystem. According to the scientist, joint infrastructure projects are very important.
"Countries should increase investment in infrastructure in border areas. There is great potential for the construction of high-speed railways and highways. The construction of a fourth Chinese-Russian railway between the Chinese region of Xinjiang and the Russian border region of Altai is urgently needed because the carrying capacity of the two railway junctions Khorgos and Alashankou in Xinjiang is running out. We need a highway that directly connects the western regions of China and the central regions of Russia," said the scientist.
Aleksey Kupriyanov, Head of the Center for the Indian Ocean Region, Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RAS, also noted the importance of developing cooperation between Russia and South Asian countries.
According to the scientist, China and India can become Russia's key trade and economic partners in the new geopolitical and economic reality.
"Russia can use India as a hub, a transmission center through which we will receive Western technologies and investments. This is already happening, although the lion's share of these imports is largely hidden in trade with third countries, primarily Egypt, China, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Turkey. Through India, Russia can also export its goods to Western markets. The Indian economy cannot digest those massive oil flows that come there, and as a result, it essentially re-exports them to the West," said the scientist.
Elena Panina is convinced that in order to develop trade and economic cooperation with Asian countries, it is necessary to take into account the development strategies of the world's friendly economies and develop mechanisms and systems for mutual coordination.
"It is obvious that the strengthening of our economic partnership with China, India and Turkey implies not only taking into account the development strategies of these countries, but also developing a mechanism for linking our strategic goals. China and India have adopted common long-term development strategies and five-year plans. In Russia, there is still no integral strategic planning system for the country's development. According to the Accounts Chamber, we have about 60,000 different strategies and it is quite difficult to match them all with the development strategies of China or India," Elena Panina explained.
As for Russia's foreign trade settlements with other countries, according to
Mikhail Golovnin, Presidium Member of the VEO of Russia, Presidium Member of the International Union of Economists, Director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, RAS Corresponding Member, the share of the Chinese yuan in them will grow.
"A promising direction is the use of digital currencies of central banks, but these plans are very far from their practical implementation," the scientist explained.
Speaking about the Russian securities market, Mikhail Golovnin noted that the task was to form it on the basis of national capital, while maintaining its openness to capital from friendly countries.
"This, on the one hand, is the entry of securities of Russian issuers to the stock exchanges of friendly countries, and on the other hand, the opportunity, respectively, for Russian investors to invest in assets from friendly countries," said the scientist.
Summing up the plenary meeting, Sergey Bodrunov thanked all MAEF experts.
"Today we tried to look into the future, we analyzed global trends and prospects for world development, proposed ways to solve urgent problems of the socio-economic development of our country in order to find a way to a better future together," the MAEF Co-Chair concluded.