May 26, 2021 — plenary session titled "The Global Transformation of Modern Society and the National Development Goals of Russia"
On the first day of the Forum, 2,970 people took part in the MAEF's online and offline events.
MAEF plenary session titled "The Global Transformation of Modern Society and the National Development Goals of Russia" was held in the Great Hall of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The plenary session was opened by the Forum's co-chairs — Alexander Sergeyev,
President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Sergey Bodrunov
, President of the Free Economic Society of Russia, President of the International Union of Economists.
Alexander Sergeyev, MAEF Co-Chair, President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that the Moscow Academic Economic Forum is dedicated to finding new opportunities for the development of the Russian economy and using those efficiently.
"In a sense, this has caused a deviation from the slow growth trajectory and a transition to a different one, which we cannot yet clearly define. We are the architects of our new trajectory for economic development. Much will depend on new decisions being made in the economy. In the course of decision-making, a wide range of expert opinions is in great demand," stressed the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"The subject of our analysis today is the changes that we have the opportunity to observe in the economy and society. Issues of design, vision of the future economic and social order, as well as discussion of the tools for conflict-free and effective transition to the foreseen future, transition to a more just and reasonable arrangement of our social life," said Sergey Bodrunov, MAEF Co-Chair, President of the Free Economic Society of Russia and the International Union of Economists.
The following speakers spoke at the plenary session: Alexander Sergeyev, President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Sergey Bodrunov
, President of the Free Economic Society of Russia, President of the International Union of Economists; Boris Titov
, Board Member at the VEO of Russia, Business Rights Commissioner of the Russian Federation; Alexander Dynkin
, Vice President of the VEO of Russia, President of the Primakov RAS Institute of World Economy and International Relations;Boris Porfiriev
, Presidium Member at the VEO of Russia, Director for Research at the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Sergey Glaziev
, Vice President of the VEO of Russia, Board Member (Minister) for Integration and Macroeconomics at the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Alexander Nekipelov
, Vice President of the VEO of Russia, Director of the Moscow School of Economics at the Lomonosov Moscow State University, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Valery Kryukov
, Director of the Institute of Economics and Industrial Organization of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Andrey Klepach
, Board Member at the VEO of Russia, Deputy Chair (Chief Economist) at Vnesheconombank; Alexander Shirov
, Board Member at the VEO of Russia, Director of the Institute for Economic Forecasting at the Russian Academy of Sciences; Chen Enfu
, Director and Chief Professor at the Research Center for Socio-Economic Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, President of the World Political Economy Association (WAPE); Albert Bakhtizin
, Director of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (CEMI RAS);Vladimir Popov
, Director for Research at the Federal Research Center Fundamental Foundations of Biotechnology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Branko Milanovic
, Presidential Visiting Fellow at the Stone Center for the Study of Socioeconomic Inequality, City University of New York; James Kenneth Galbraith
, Professor at the University of Texas, USA.
Forum's participating experts presented their vision of ways to achieve national development goals and secure sustainable economic growth in Russia.
For example, according to Boris Titov, Business Rights Commissioner under the President of the Russian Federation, the new model for the development of the Russian Economy should be a model focused on growing domestic demand.
"The prospects of the resource-based model are dubious due to oil prices and structural problems that have accumulated in the economy," emphasized the MAEF expert. "The new model of the economy should focus not on exporting resources, but on competition on the domestic market and the establishment of a large number of domestic market actors."
According to Boris Titov, the Russian economy can grow, among other things, through increased labor productivity and a more efficient redistribution of natural resource rent. In particular, the bulk of revenues should be reinvested through state development institutions.
Sergey Glaziev, Minister for Integration and Macroeconomics at the Eurasian Economic Commission, believes that it is imperative to grow investment in highly developed segments of the economy at an annual rate of 15-20%, in particular, in oil and gas engineering, construction, agriculture, in accelerated development programs in the mass assembly of transport vehicles, in deep processing of raw materials, and in stimulating innovation.
"By implementing such a strategy, we can achieve an annual growth rate of 8%, as shown by China and India, which are leaders in economic growth today," he said. "Of course, this strategy should be implemented as part of a strategic planning system, part of which should be monetary policy: targeted lending through the mechanisms of public-private partnership and special investment vehicles and other forms of public-private interaction."
According to Alexander Shirov, Director of the Institute for Economic Forecasting and MAEF expert, in order to "restart" the Russian economy, support is, first of all, needed to the social sphere and consumer demand.
"Household consumption accounts for roughly 50% of Russia's GDP — here lies the main potential," the expert noted. "The job structure of the economy is ineffective. In Russia, more than 40% of residents work in low-skilled jobs. Only 28% of employees are paid at or above average. Half of households spend more than 40% of their income on food and cannot afford to invest in human capital by paying for health care, education, or recreation."
Household incomes and the social sphere are the main sore spot, agrees Andrey Klepach, Chief Economist at Vnesheconombank.
"Despite the measures taken, real incomes in 2024 will be 2.5% lower than in 2013. Which means that we will face 11 years of recession, or stagnation, which means that the relationship between the social sphere and the economy must radically change. If the economy is unable to support the welfare of the country's residents, such an economy is doomed, it is uncompetitive," the MAEF expert believes.
According to the economist, additional measures are needed to reduce poverty by half, down to 6%. "The existing package is addressed primarily to families with children, and rightly so, but the poor are not only large families and families with children. A significant proportion of people employed in agriculture and other industries are poor. A certain share of the poor are pensioners. In fact, the pension model is not developing," said Andrey Klepach.
The MAEF expert emphasized that the quality of life and well-being of the residents depends on many factors, including the level of healthcare, education, and technology.
"Special attention should be paid to supporting and growing funding of fundamental science, which not only forms the framework of scientific and technological progress, but also gives a significant, although not always adequately appreciated, contribution to the economy and welfare," believes Sergey Bodrunov.
Funding of fundamental science in Russia is only 1.1% of GDP, while the global average is 2-4%. The leaders in innovative economy — Korea and Israel — invest over 4% of GDP in science and research.
"It is still challenging to convince of the need to invest more in science. The problem is that in Russia 2/3 of the funding is provided by the state, and only 1/3 by businesses. In the rest of the world, with which we want to compete in science and innovation, the opposite is true. We understand that now the role of the state is not simply to increase funding of science, but to catalyze the processes that will offer businesses incentives to grow investment in science," said Alexander Sergeyev, President of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Vladimir Popov, Director for Research at the Federal Research Center Fundamental Foundations of Biotechnology, RAS, expressed the opinion that the basis of the new economic order is biotechnology. "Lagging in this area is fraught with challenges to national security — this is food security, health security, recurring new infections, the loss of new export markets in connection with the transition to a green economy," believes the academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
According to Vladimir Popov, it is important for Russia to build the elements of bioeconomy, which is impossible without state support. "We need accelerated financing of R&D in this area, including preferential public procurement of bioproducts and direct preferences, and most importantly, the creation of new markets," the MAEF expert believes.
In addition to supporting R&D in biotech, projects entitled to state support are needed, and a high-level program document should be adopted that will describe the development of biotechnology in Russia and a coordination body in the field of biotechnology should be established, suggested Vladimir Popov.
A critical important task is to restart domestic consumer and investment demand in order to improve the living standards in Russia, agreed Alexander Dynkin, President of the Primakov RAS Institute of World Economy and International Relations. In addition, according to the academician, one should take into account the processes that are unfolding on a global scale. New exogenous risks faced by the global and financial economic system are pandemics, regional conflicts, and climate change.
Alexander Dynkin named two scenarios for the future world order that can materialize in the next 15 years. The most likely scenario, according to the scientist, is a new bipolarity, where one pole will be the Moscow-Beijing axis, while the US will be the other one.
"The bipolar world has always been associated with the proliferation of both small and large regional conflicts, and we see a significant intensification of these processes in Karabakh, Israel and Palestine, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, in eastern Ukraine, the deepening confrontation between Moscow and Washington, Balkanization in technology, and vaccine nationalism," said Alexander Dynkin. But, according to the scientist, another scenario is also possible — that of "a responsible polycentric world." "The world can preserve the modern polycentric architecture if the main global players remain responsible," the RAS Academician noted.
Alexander Nekipelov, Vice President of the VEO of Russia, Director of the Moscow School of Economics at the Lomonosov Moscow State University, raised the issue of the redundancy of state reserves. If in 2019 the National Welfare Fund amounted to 7.3% of GDP, in December 2020 it was 11.7% and 11.9% in March 2021. "It is necessary to examine the situation with state reserves and formulate a reasonable policy in this area. In a context of uncertainty, reserves are an effective tool to reduce risks, but there is every reason to believe that Russia's reserves are excessive and are not being used properly," noted the RAS Academician. "This airbag is meant to be used in a recession."
"Another question is the optimal form of the necessary reserves. It would be reasonable to start shifting the center of gravity from foreign exchange reserves to commodity and resource reserves," believes Alexander Nekipelov.
Traditionally, an interactive poll
was held as part of the MAEF. Its results reflect the consolidated position of the expert and scientific community on the priority issues of the country's socio-economic development. Poll results are available on the Forum's website
and in the analysis materials. May 27, 2021 — MAEF plenary conferences and final plenary session The main plenary conferences of the MAEF-2021
held on the second day of the Forum:
Session 1:"Socioeconomic development alternatives faced by Russian society"
(Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation)
Session 2: "Digital transformation of the economy: redesigning our future or evolution of generic models?"
(Plekhanov Russian University of Economics)
Session 3:"Global socio-economic transformations: the future of Russia" (5th International Political Economy Congress
" (Lomonosov Moscow State University)
Session 4: "The new role of agriculture in the modern economy and the priorities of Russia's agrarian policy"
(Nikonov Russian National Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics).
MAEF-2021 youth conference: "Digital transformation and artificial intelligence: is machine rise possible? – The perspective of generation Z"
(Moscow Aviation Institute)
At the final plenary session of the Forum
, which took place in the Congress Hall of the VEO of Russia, the chairs of the MAEF-2021 plenary conferences spoke.
MAEF-2021 was wrapped up by Sergey Bodrunov, Co-Chair of the Forum, President of the VEO of Russia and of the International Union of Economists. The two-day discussions held at the Forum were summed up by Abel Aganbegyan, Co-Chair of the MAEF Program Committee, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The Forum also hosted an award ceremony for the winners of the 2020 Russian national competition of economic journalism
organized by the Free Economic Society of Russia and the International Union of Economists, and an award ceremony for the winners and laureates of the 24th Russian national competition of youth research Russia's Economic Growth
organized by the Free Economic Society of Russia with the participation and support of the International Union of Economists, the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Publishing House Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta.
An exhibition of economic publications was held at the MAEF-2021. The books Economics by Academician Ivanter
(by the Institute of Economic Forecasting at the Russian Academy of Sciences, edited by B.N. Porfiriev, A.A. Shirov and others) and Strategic Transformation of Society
(by V.L. Kvint, S.D. Bodrunov).
The progress and results of the Forum were covered by federal and regional media. Main (by citations) publications in the media: 1. Rossiyskaya gazeta Restart growth. 3rd Moscow Academic Economic Forum closed in Moscow
3rd Moscow Academic Economic Forum to be held in Moscow
https://rg.ru/2021/06/01/za-schet-chego-udastsia-dostich-nacionalnyh-celej-razvitiia.html 2. TASS 3rd Moscow Academic Economic Forum held
3rd Moscow Academic Economic Forum to be held on May 26-27 3. Russia's Public Television MAEF participants discussed Russia's economic problems 4.
MAEF-2021 was covered in the special editions
of the news show Dom E on the OTR TV channel
(on 12.06.2021) and the Industrial Club show on the St. Petersburg TV channel. 5. Scientific Russia 3rd Moscow Academic Economic Forum (MAEF)
"Our future is promising." The first day of the MAEF held in Moscow
Sergey Bodrunov on the global transformation of modern society
RAS President A.M. Sergeyev: "Science has become the main instrument for overcoming the crisis" Final materials of the Forum
include analysis of the global transformations of contemporary society, expert opinions and suggestions on ways to implement the national development goals of Russia, the results of the plenary sessions, Forum conferences, and the MAEF regional venues.
The Forum materials will be made available on the websites of the MAEF and its organizers — the VEO of Russia, RAS, and IUE, and also sent to government bodies.